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A PRESENTATION OF CAUSES 



n:\ in so TO i i \ 'i'ii i; position of tii i: 



FUTURE GREAT CITY OF THE WOULD 



in tiii: 



CENTRAL PLAIN OF NORTH AMERICA. 



SHOWING THAT 



The Centre of the World's Commerce, 



NOW REPRESENTED i;Y TH1C 



CTTV OP" LOISTDOKT, 



IS MOVING WESTWARD TO THE 



CITY OF TVIiiAV YORK, 



AND THENCE, WITHIN ONE HUNDRED VI. Mis, TO 



THE REST POSITION ON THE GREAT LAKES. 



liy J. W. SCOTT. 




TOLEDO: 
BLADE 8TI vm BOOB ami JOB PBINT, 

1868. 



Entered according to act of Congress, m W. Scott, in tie Clerk's offlc ofthi 



Cities are organisms thai grow up as naturally a? men. They develope where human 
faculties are most effective, and because these faculties can be more effective there than 
elsewhere. Like men, too, thej are mutually helpful. London could nol have grown to 

become whal she is withoul the aid of Birmingham, Manchester, Liver] Land the other 

greai cities in her neighborhood, and in other parts of the world. Proximity to these has 
given her, and sustained in her, more than one of the millions of her people. < >n the other 
hand, London lias not failed to return to her sister cities the lull measure of benefits receivi d 
from them. As all the prmcipal cities of the world contribute to the supporl of London, 
so do thej all take tribute of her. Eonesl commerce gives forth equal benefits, and no 
commerce thai is no! hones! ran be permanently successful. 

The earliest greai cities were built bj a race of men inferior to our own, to-wit: the 
Mongolian Chinese. Their means for commercial operations — navigable riversand canals — 
though imperfect, enabled them to centralize commerce so as to build up cities containing 
a million or more "1' people ; but, with insuflicienl unity of government and interesl to draw 
commerce to one greai centre. Subsequently, Caucasian and mixed faces centralized 
commerce in their own limited dominion: — on the Tigris, Euphrates. Nile, Ganges, and 
other navigable rivers. These wen' commercial centres, chiefly for the nations which made 
them their capitals ; for, at that period, very little commerce between nations existed. The 
early cities of the Btediteranean sea were the firsl thai were made centres of an j considerable 
international commerce: and this was chiefly confined to (he waters of that sea. The 
vessels in which ii was carried on would make a poor show com pa red with the shipping now 

on our great lakes. In short, trade, in early times, "as < lined to verj limited regions. 

It was local and isolated. Gradually, il has grown to be more general, and its leading 
centres have become more populous and powerful. I Ian dels. \ illages, towns and cities have 
grown and competed for supremacy until, now, a centre for the commerce of the whole 
world challenges discussion. 

Where will, probably, grow up the greai cities id' the future? I say. probably, for new 
elements may come into the calculation that are now unknown or unappreciated. 1 shall 
assume that a city is an organism, springing from natural laws as inevitably as any other 
organism, and governed, invariably, in its origin and growth, l>\ these laws. 1 shall also 
assume, and endeavor to prove, thai these cities are to be on the North American Continent) 
and not distant from the centre of the industrial power id' this continent, when well settled 
and its resources well developed. 

The e.rou i h of a city is analogous to the growl h of a man. The firsl and greatesi necessit \ 
ol'a human 1 icing is food. The next is clothing; after which comes shelter. Food, clothing 



and houses. These are prime and essential requisites. There can be no civilized life without 
all of thriu. Hut these are products of labor and skill. Where can labor and skill be used 
tn greatest advantage, in the production of these necessities ? The solution of this question 
will go far to fix a natural location for a city. 

Hut there are other necessities of high civilization, without which there can be no great 
city. There must be easy communication between it and other industrious and populous 
communities; good navigable channels, and. in our day. good road-ways over the land. 
TKere needs be cheap and quick means of transportation in order to effect thai facile 
interchange of commodities which sustains high civilization. In discussing the question of 

the locatii I' the future greatest city, it will be assumed that our continent will I"- settled 

by an industrious population and most densely inhabited where food and other primary 
ne 'ds are most certainly attainable. 

It is a well-established fact that the centre of industrial power, as well as the centre oi 
population, of North America, is moving steadily and inevitably westward of its former and 
present location ; and it is not doubted that it will continue t i move in that direction until 
it shall have approached the centre of the natural productive power of the continent. 

The invention of the mariner's compass united, in a measure, the great continents, and 
brought all lands within the views of commerce. The earth was sailed around, and all its 
prominent characteristics became known. Slowly, at first, but faster andfaster, the productions 
of different climates and different conditions of people were brought to shipping ports and 
exchanged. Now, the new and wonderful instrumentalities, steam and electric telegraphsi 
arc making all peoples into one commercial family, and concentrating their commerce in 
ureal centres; as London, Paris and New York. It is a question of great interest whether 
one of these is to be the acknowledged heart and brain of the world's commerce; giving to 
the word commerce its widest signification. As yet, commerce has not become organized as 
a complete unit, and. therefore, has not a universally acknowledged central city; though 
its developement, within the last fifty years has rapidlj I ended to centralization in the Island 
of Britain and the city of London. Paris is, and has long been, the acknowledged social 
centre of the world, due to itssupremacy in the elegant arts and the amenities of high 

civilization. It has not been without eontroling natural laws that London has be< e the 

principal centre of the world's commerce. II' the various means of transportation are 
c msidered, it will be found that it is more c mvenient for the meeting of commercial products, 
exportable from all parts of the commercial world, than any cither city : that is in say. it is 
more nearly central t" the present commercial power id' the world than am other great city. 
It is more central to the home commerce of the United Kingdom than any other commodious 
port, This is a great advantage, fur the home trade of the British nation isvery great; 
inaii\ times greater than its foreign commerce. It is central between the commerce of the 
Eastern and Western Continents, considering how great!) the magnitude id' that of the 
Eastern exceeds that of the Western. Will it remain central? 

There was a time when the island of Britain was on the extreme western verge of 
civilization and commerce, and, as said by Virgil, divided from the whole world besides. Since 
that lime, the tide nf men and commerce has moved steadily westward. That tide, in 
constantly increasing volume and rapidity nf flow, continues t" nunc westward. This 
continuing, the certainty of its reaching a better, centre of commercial power than London, 
seems inevitable. Hut, tn (his end. it must cress the Atlantic. W'hal are the indications 
thiit it will, on this side, find its destined place? [fit is admitted that London must he 
superceded, what intelligent man will hesitate to name New York as the successful rival? 
Fort) years ago in 1828 — London, with its numerous suburbs, contained about a million 
and a half of people. It has di ml iled its population since, making ii s period of duplication 
l"ii\ p.ar-. New York, with its dependent population included, by which 1 mean those 
supported bj the business of New York, and having their residences in suburban places, 



has now, in 1868, a population greater than London bad, in 1838. New York appears t<> 
have a law of growth which doubles its population in from fourteen to sixteen years. If we 
allow London a future growth of two per cent, a year, and New York of five per ecu!., on a 
population of three million for the former, and half that number for the latter, the result 
will be in L882, fifteen years from this bime, thai London will contain, in round numbers, 
four millions. New York will then contain over three millions. Allowing the same rate of 
increase up to L893, the two cities will be nearly equal, New York numbering 4,849,387, 
and London 4,823,514. The United States, at thai time, will contain over sixty miUienaof 
pe iplc ; and the British Colonies, bordering the States on the north, will contain some eight 
millions. Together, sixty-eighi millions. Long before thai year. Eastern Asia, embracing 
the viva! Empires of China and Japan, with all the coasts of the North Pacific Ocean, will 
have become practically nearer to New York than to London, by means of railways across 
the American ( 'ontinent. 

The centre of commercial power moving westward will, somewhere, in lime, be arrested. 
Ii will find a resting-place in North America; fori! is not to be supposed it will, in its 
westward course, cross the 1'aeitie to the inferior races of Eastern Asia. Nor is it likely 
to reach ami make a lodgemeni at any porf on our Pacific coast. The vast, arid and 
mountainous regions of the western hall' of the continent, and the nnequaled extent of 
fertile lands on the eastern half, fix its location, inevitably, on the latter. Will New York, 
then, be the permanent emporium of North America and the world; or will its ultimate 
re3ting-place be westward of her position ? The n riter believes, after giving New York the 
leadership over London, the final supremacy among the world's cities, will settle on a place 
by the shores >)\' the greaf lakes, central to thegreatesf industrial and commercial capabilities, 
and thegreatesi exteni of fertile lands in the Ndrth Temperate Zone of the Globe. Chicago 
and Toledo have already demonstrated themselves to he the strongesi commercial points on 
the Lakes ; ami. as their position is plainly the besi for the concentration of land and water 
transport, a change to other places is no! to he looked for. [Hoe Appendix, A]. 

But, before entering on the consideration of the claims of an interior city to become, at some 
future day. the successful rival of New York, as the chief centre of the world's commerce, 
i( will hi' in order to inquire on what grouuds, besides the more rapid growth of New York 
intliepast.it is claimed thai ii will become greater than London. 

The main, the 'controlling reason is that it i- getting an increasing!} larger home trade 
than London, because our home population, now greater, is increasing marly three times as 
fast. It has been demonstrated, on our railway lines, that the way-traffic between city and 

city, and stati mil station, in all the settled portions of lines of any considerable extent. 

greatly preponderate-, in amount and profit, over the through traffic, even where the 
termini are greal gathering points of commerce. No statistics at band enable me to state 
w hat are the proporl ions of the home trade of Now York, compared with its w hole commerce, 
or what proportion of its population is supported by the home trade, and what portion by 
foreign commerce. If we estimate the proportion of the former to the latter as fifteen to 
one it will nol he over-stated. If I his is so. t hen the forty million of people in the United 
siaies and British Provinces, making New York their principal commercial metropolis, will 

I |ual, for advancing its growth, to -i\ hundred million of outsiders, living in far off 

foreign lands. It is because population and wealth increases much faster in our country 
than in England, and. in consequence, ils home trade is greater, that New York grows 
faster than London, and nol because it secures a greater amount of foreign commerce: 
for. in that respect, London is. yet. far ahead of New York. 

The indigenous commerce of tic United Kingdom, which centres in London, may now 
he nearly as greal as thai of our States centering in New York, as the number of people 
sustaining it is aboui in the proportion of '.".i to 38. The industry of our people, however, 
is more productive than that of tic people of the United Kingdom, as statistics show a 



6 

duplication of our wealth in les.* than ten years, which is about half the time required for 
doubling theirs. 

In the short period of twenty-five years allowed New York to become more populous than 
London, our numbers, now thirty-eight million, will have augmented to over seventy 
million; while that of the United Kingdom will only, at its normal rate of increase, grow 
np from thirty million to less than forty million. Before the end of that period the British 
Provinces, beyond our north boundary, will have become a pari of our commercial svstem, 
if not a component pari of our nationality. These Provinces will then contain nearly ten 
million of very industrious, hardy and intelligent inhabitants, swelling our number for the 
home trade to eighty million. Surely, in the lighi of all these considerations, it is not 

presumptuous or premature to forecast the superiority of New York to L Ion, and its 

claim, in 1 893, to be, more than any other city, the heart and brain of the commercial 
world. That a city of that character will, in the regular course of human events, exist, 
seems to me certain. That it will be developed on the Continent of North America, and, 
finally, rest on the besi point on our great lakes, seems to me equal!] certain. 

The Continent of North America has a remarkable depression between the Appelaehian 
.Mountains, on the east, and the Rocky Mountain ranges, on the west, and extending from 
the Gulf of Mexico, on the south, to the Arctic Sea, on the north. This constitutes the 
great interior plain of the Continent, and embraces most of the elements provided by nature 
to sustain the hulk of the population hereafter to inhabit the < lontinent. In all its immense 
length and breadth it is interrupted by no mountain barrier, and has, within its eastern 
portion, no barren waste. Almost everywhere, it is fertile and well-watered. To enable 
c unmerce among its people to be more rapid and cheap, ii is provided with navigable rivers 
and lakes to the extent of tens of thousands of miles, and its unobstructed surface ina\ 
he. everywhere, permiated by cheaply-made railroads. 

Tin' first ami greatest necessity id' man is food. At what point or points in the interior 
plain of North America, can this he obtained, in quantity to feed a large city, at I he cheapest 
rate? It seems to he proved, by the results of the last twenty-five years, that the two most 
prominent of these points are < Ihicago and Toledo : as these have been the primary gathering 
ports of the greatest amounts of the most needful articles of food ; and they seem to have 
such commanding positions for commerce, interior and exterior to our country, as to justify 
I he claim to precedence overall others. The annual receipts of breadstuff's at these cities, for 
export, has, for several years, exceeded fifty million id' bushels. At ten bushels to the 
individual, this would feed five million people. Thai number, therefore, in addition to 
their present population, could have been fed in these cities, at less cost than at any other 
place to which this grain was transported, by all the cost of that transportation. Nen York, 
Boston, and other far-off cities, consumed and distributed most of these fifty million hnshels 
of food, and their various industries were sustained by it. at a cost id' not less than ten 
million dollars beyond its value, jn these interior cities. If these industries could have hem 
carried on as well in Toledo and Chicago, as in New York and Boston, those engaged in 
them, in those exterior cities, lost the ten million in consequence of not being at the place 
where the cheapest bread could have been obtained. Hut. breadstuff's form hut one article 
of necessary food. Next to them comes meat. It will he a moderate estimate to rate the 
animal food sent annually from Chicago and Toledo, and consisting of cattle, sheep, live 
bogs, dressed hogs, beef, pork, cut meats, lard, butter, etc, as amply sufficient to supph the 
five million people which their surplus breadstuffs provides for. These articles, valued at 
Chicago and Toledo, at twenty-five million dollars, probably cost the consumers, in the 
Eastern and European cities, not less than thirty-live million, making another ten million 
added to the cost of living in those cities that might have been saved, if the consumers had 
lived in or near these lake cities. These and other estimates are not designed to hi' exact, lint 
sufficiently so to justify the position we take. Doubtless, many of the consumers, in Eastern 



;i 



ikI European cities, can afford fco pay this additional cost of food, in consideration of the 
more perfect organization of labor, and other advantages, in the older cities. If. then, we 
modify our estimate of the loss of the five millions excrescent population thai are fed on 
far-fetched food, and make it half what is Bel down above, .so as to reduce it to ten million, 
the truth will, probably, be closely approximated. 

The speech of Hon. S. B. Ruggles, in the Canal Convention at Chicago, gives a striking 
view of the resources of the Lake States, in the production of human food. Does he ao\ 
over-estimate the quantity they are likely to easportf According to ]>r. Chalmers "the 
bulkiness of human food forms one of those obstructions in the working of the economic 
machine which tends to equalize the population of every country with its food-producing 
power." Mr. Ruggles, by converting the corn (and he might have added the grass) crop 
into animal loud, has. measurably, removed the obstacle of bulkiness to the extensive export, 
from the Lake States, to the more expensively fed population of other countries. Still the 
fad remains I hal the consumers of this animal food, and of the fifty million bushels of our 
breadstuff's, in Great Britain and in our Eastern States, year by year, must pay the cost of 
transportation, and profits, from Chicago and Toledo, over and above whai would be the 
cost to l hem. if located in these cities. It is not too high an estimate to put this additional 
cos! ai thirty-three and one-third per cent. The persons that consume this food laborers, 
mechanics, etc — would ael wisely by removing to the cities which, in other respects than 
cheap food, would afford them a heller home than they now have. They will come to the 
greal centres, where food is gathered in, and there pursue their avocations to better advantage 
than in the over-peopled country they leave. Mr. Ruggles is a far-seeing man. hut he seems 
not properly to estimate the rapid growth of interior cities, and their ability, inconsequence, 
to consume a large portion of the surplus of agriculture which is now so great. The lake 
eiiies. in position and climate, are unequaled for the advantages they oiler the immigrant. 
They are central to the besl regions of the earth, for the growth of the besl fruits, grains and 
animals, to [\-n\ men ; and, with these advantages, and a healthful climate, may claim to he 
the nurseries of the best men. The food, as heretofore, will attract to it the mouths to feed 

ii] it. Labor will seek cheap food with good wages. It has always done so. The lake 

cities, although bul germs of what they are to he. have exhibited, in their growth, the truth 
of this principle. A'o other commercial centres have been so rapidly peopled, in their 
early life. The attainment of cheap food has been the chief cause of this large increase. 
| See Appendix, B]. 

\e\i to food, as a prime necessil \ . comes clothing. The chief materials of this are wool. 
cotton, linl and leather, for all conditions of people. Wool and lint will lie bough! cheaper 
in the lake cities than in the Atlantic cities, and raw cotton as cheaply, in Chicago and 
Toledo, as at anj leading eastern city. As the operative will he i'vi\ on cheaper food, 
the manufacturers of these articles will, for this and other reasons hereafter given, find these 
lake cities a good location for factories. Situated centrally to the besl grass and grain 
growing region of the continent, Chicago and Toledo will, naturally, concentrate in their 
markets a large portion of the wool grown in the country. Tin' production of flax and 
hemp will, probably, in proportion to its use, be as great within the commercial control of 
these cities as that of wool, the climate and soil being well-adapted to their gTOM Ih- Col ton 
will, probably, in a few years, he grown west of the Mississippi, as largely as east of it. and 
will find ils primary markets, in largest quantity, at Memphis. Vicksburg, New Orleans, and 
other favorable points on the hanks of the western tributaries of the greal river. From 
these cities it can he delivered to the manufacturer at Chicago and Toledo as cheaply as at 
the manufacturing cities of New England ami New York. 

In the climate where human brain and muscle have greatesl activity and endurance, and 
where things called for by a high state of civilization can he broughl together for use and 
exchange with least expenditure of time and money, the ultimate city of the human family 



will I"' developed. In its early life it will be Been to grow rapidly, by reason of its facility to 
procure cheap food, clothing and shelter. These advantages continuing, and a higher life 
than a merely comfortable existence, procurable as well there as elsewhere, its growth will 
have no check, of long duration, but the Ian of progress, as shown in its first serii s of years, 
and decades of years, will, probably, be the Ian of its maturing grow th, IV > r a period not easy 
to esl imate. [ See Appendix, B |. 

The climate of the lake borders is invigorating and adapted to the besl race of man. The 
breezes over tin- pure waters of thes • in lam I seas, and from the cultivated plains of Illinois, 
and the well-drained woodlands and fields of -Ohio and Michigan, will possess more tonic 
power than the ocean winds, without their harsh characteristics. For healthfulness, tin. 
positions at the In -ads of Lakes Michigan and Brie, being elevated rain feel above the ocean' 
arc believed to be superior to that of New York. For transportation by water, in all 
directions, it may admit of question whether the advantage is on the side of the great 
Atlantic city or the rivals, hereafter to be developed, on the lakes. II' New York claims to 
have all the oceans and their connecting navigable waters, the lake cities may claim that, 

before New York shall have brought the centre of the world's commerce from L Ion, si 

good navigable passage for lake ships to the ocean will have been made, for the upper lake 
cities, so as tn place them in a position l" participate in foreign commerce. But, for interior 
commerce, which all concede fco he tar more important than foreign, the water channels, b\ 
Uke, river and canal, which are immediately available lor Chicago and Toledo, these cities 
have a great advantage over New York, for fchey extend in all directions, and have a natural 
concentration at these points. New York has only a water channel, for interior commerce, 

in one direction. to-Wit: northward, up the Hudson River. This, with its entering 
canals, forms almost the only ^ater-way it has for interior commerce. The commercial 
instrumentalities— railways and waggon-roads— may !»■ made from Chicago and Toledo to 
nearly all points of the compass, almost without obstruction, for long distances. Railways 
are most naturally placed, and most profitably usd. by the side of the best water-ways. 
Both these means of transportation seek the lowest levels, preferring to avoid the task of 
working against gravitation; commercial products, like other matters, choosing a down 
-rade rather than an up grade, The Appalachian ranee ,,f mountains separate a mere 
margin of our country, lying east of them, from the great body of our lands spread out 
westward. New York occupies a central position in this marginal section. Two low passes 
through the mountains— one by the Mohawk liner, and the other by Lake Cbamplain— 
are the only routes, unobstructed by mountain ranges, which are open to her choice, to 
afford her railway communication with the body of the nation, west of the mountains. 
These passes form her best channels of land transport, as well as the only channels of water 
transport, with the great central plain. Placed on the ocean border, New York can only 
have a little more than half the land, within any given radius, from which to obtain trade, 
that Chicago and Toledo has. These cities command the lowest passage-ways between the 
b»ke (St. Lawrence) basin and that of the Mississippi waters. The summit-level of the canal 
and railroad connecting Toledo and Cincinnati is but 400 feet above these cities which are 
,,u i lie same plane. The Wabash canal and railroad which connects Toledo with the Wabash 
valley, rise but 800 feet above the lake in a distance of lit) miles, before they descend 
towards the centre of the .Mississippi basin, by an almost imperceptible grade. Themargin 
of the lake basin is but a lew miles from < hica.eo, and rises but 24 feet above the lake. 
Towards thes,. low valleys the commerce of the country naturally gravitates. Along these 
channels the commerce between the great interior river system and thegreat lakes naturally 
Hows. The' river cities, Cincinnati. Madison. Louisville. Kvansville. Paducah. Cairo, 
Memphis, St. Uuis, Alton. Quincey, Keokuk, Dubuque, Devanport, etc. will use these 
natural channels for their rapidly growing commerce with and through the great lakes. 
This advantage, alone, would secure to Chicago and Toledo pre-eminence among the lake cities. 



Lit ii- go back a Little in our argument. Although London is mm a greater centre 
of the commercial power of the world than any other city, it is only measurably bo, in a 
unitary sense. The organizal ion of society, as one whole, is yel too imperfecl to call for the 
use of one all-directing head, and one central moving heart. In many things Paris claims 
pre-emin mc s, and many other cities exist almost independent of London. It will only be 
the ultimate great city thai will fully unite, in itself, the functions analogous to those of the 
human head ami heart, in relation to the whole family of man. Thai ultimate crowning 
city w ill be in the interior of North America. " Earth's noblest empire is her last." Berkley 
was a i rue prophet. The e 'ntre of commercial power will carry with it the centrer of moral 
and intellectual pre-dominence. Its movement, controled by nature's great law, is steadily 
n istward. Its semblance, forecasting the future, has arrived in England, and exists in 
London. Thence, westward, it can find no resting-place until it readies New York. Thai 
city will stand, for a time, the precursor, the herald, of the final great city of the world, 
which, within one century from this time, will have been established in the interior, where 
Chicago or Toledo now forms its nucleus. The same foreshadowing grounds of belief 
which compel conviction of the future pre-eminence of New York, exist, ami an- put. ait. in 
in favor of the interior city, as compared with the Atlantic capital. One hundred years is 
allowed tin- the budding of the world's commercial capital in the world's besi region. One 
hundred years, at our prei ious rate of increase, will give four duplications, and six hundred 
millions. Allowing thirty-three and one-third years for future duplications, instead of 
twenty-five, and we have three hundred millions as the result. Of these, ici less than two 
hundred and thirty millions will inhabit the interior plain, and the region west of it ; and 
not over seventy millions will inhabit the margin, east of the Appalachians. What proportion 
of the two hundred and thirty millions will prefer to transact business with each other, by 
crossing the mountains toe-ether, carrying with them the articles to be exchanged, to ,\r« 
York, rather than to meet each other, at the most conveniently located city, in their midst ? 
The productions of thes i two hundred and thirty millions, intended for exchange with each 
other, will meet at the most convenient point, central in time and cost, to their homes and 
exchangeable products. Where will thai point be? Chicago and Toledo are believed to be 
the true claimants for this high destiny. Which of these has the best, position to become 
the ultimate great city? In estimating the relative claims of these two young cities to have 

the greater future. :oncession is made to the present popular opinion which would. 

without doubt, decide in favor of the larger city. I believe Toledo occupies a better position 
to become the ultimate city, time's noblest offspring. Some reasons for this belief are 
submitted. It seems, on examining the position of the two cities on the map of the United 

states, that Chicago is 1 v central forgathering in north-western commerce. 1 concede 

this. If there were no counter-balancing power in the commerce of the Stales, cast- of 
Toledo, of the country east and north of the great lakes, ami of the Atlantic, on all its 
extended shores, and a rival at the west end of Lake Superior, to come into the account, 
Toledo would not be thought of as a successful rival of Chicago. But. for many years, I lie 
centre of industrial power of the world will be, not only east of Toledo, but east of \, w 
York. Ag before remarked, it is endeavoring to establish itself in London. It will make a 
stronger and more successful effort to establish itself in New York. In thirty years New 
York will become the acknowledged successful rival of London. Within the next fifty 
years it will have established its superiority overall former rivals. If will, then, experience 
the effects of the inevitable Ian of western progress. The centre of the world's industrial 
power will be on its way westward of New York. After leaving that city, where will be its 
resting-place ? 

The centre of the population of the United States, in L790, was in Maryland. It has 

3ince moved steadily in a direction north of west. | See Appendix, C]. In 1850 it was near 
Pittsburg. In isiin.it was in south-eastern Ohio. IS the Provinces north of us are included 



10 

the centre of population is now not far from Canton, Stark County, Ohio. If there were 

i van commerce to V taken into the calculation, Buffalo would now be nearer the centre 

of industrial power of our country, than any other city, having decided commercial 
advantages. When the centre of the industrial power of the world shall tremble in the 
balance, between New York and its western rival, Buffalo will be too distanl from thegreal 
river commerce and the greai railway concentration of the interior plain ; and the centre of 
commercial power of the continent will be too far west of it. The movement of this centre 
of population and industrial power is, undeniably, in the direction of Toledo. Before 
reaching Toledo there is no position, on or near its movement, so fayorable to a greal 
concentration of commerce, as in arrest its progress and makeil permanent. Cleveland will 
be the leas! distant, but her advantages are, obviously, less than those of Toledo. It will be 
(•unci 'dcd that, if tin' centre of the industrial power of the world ever leaves New York t o 
establish a rival citj in the plain, it will come as far wesi as Toledo. Will it move farther; 
and, if it does, will it rest in Chicago? 'I'll'' reasons for making Toledo its first and 
permanent resting-place .ire numerous. This centre of industrial power will, for many 
years, he nearer to Toledo than to ( Ihicago. Two hundred and twenty miles, separating the 
two cities, will have to !»• passed over; and when, if ever, that distance is accomplished, 
Toledo will have the weight of commercial power on her side. All the time when this 
centre is approaching Toledo, from the east, and when, if ever, it proceeds so far west as to 
he nearer Chicago, the advantage will be with Toledo. A line drawn on the map, equi-distani 
from < Ihicago and Toledo, and bearing norl hward and southward, will, extended northward, 
cut Lake Michigan west of its outlet, ami also west of the outlet of Lake Superior. Extended 
southwardly, it goes through Indianapolis and Nashville to Pensacola, on the gulf. All the 
country east of this middle line is nearer Toledo than Chicago, and so should prefer it as 
the concentrating point of its commerce. 

It will be seen, on inspection of this line of equal distance, that it shows all the great 
lake waters, except Lake Michigan, nearer Toledo than Chicago; Lake- Erie and Ontario, 
by over 700 miles; Lake Huron, on the average of its shores, of some 200 miles, and Lake 
Superior about 60 miles. This is a great advantage, for the animal commerce of these 
lakes, (including Michigan), already, in its infancy, exceeds in value one thousand millions 
of dollars. It employ- over two thousand vessels, aggregating nearly one million tons. 
transporting annually (as represent ■<! by At. vis: Bsonson, a high authority), twenty-eight 
million tons. This commerce will be duplicated several times before the period to which 
our investigation is carried ; and it- improved and ample water-way to the ocean will have 
been a lone- time m use. The interior navigation, furnished by lake waters nearer Toledo 
than ( Ihicago, counting distance along the shores, measures more than four thousand miles. 

From the line of equal distance, eastward. Toledo has nearer to her nearly all theCanadas. 
all the British Provinces east of the Canadas, two-thirds id' the lower peninsula of Michigan 
move than one-third of Indiana, three-fourths of Kentucky, half of Tennessee, more than 
half of Alabama, nearly all of Florida, and all of t he sixteen States eastward »\' those name 1 ' 
above. Nearly all the "feat centres of business on this Continent lie within easier 
communication with Toledo, to-wit : Portland. Boston, Pro\ idenoe. New York, Philadelphia, 
Baltimore, Washington, Richmond, Charleston. Savannah. Louisville. Cincinnati. Cleveland) 
Detroit, Buffalo, Toronto, Rochester, Albany, .Montreal. Quebec, etc.: while Chicago only 
has within its limits, (I say its limits, for it will he noted that I am dividing the future 
claim to final pre-eminence in the commerce of the world, between these embryo cities), 
Xew Orleans, Mobile, Memphis, St. Louis, Milwaukee. San Francisco. Sacramento, and 
many minor cities growing up rapidly on the Mississippi and Missouri rivers, of ocean 
commerce, Toledo will have, on her side, that of the Atlantic, and Chicago, on her side, that 
of the Pacific. Supposing, then, these lake cities competing, in the final struggle, to become 
the world's central emporium of commerce, the balance of industrial power seems altogether 



11 

unlikely to gravitate so as to become more central to Chicago than to Toledo. What 
are the special claims of Chicago ? Firsl and greatesl is a population eighl times as large 
as thiii of Toledo, which, with the prestigj, which its m ire rapid derelopemenl has given it, 

has enabled it to c uic sntra! • c tpital and influtei nly i i bs e [ualed, by its rival, after a 

struggle of many years. It is nearer the greal field of production of the precious metals. 
Thai portion of the commerce of the Pacific which crosses the Isthmus of Panama, and 
reaches the lakes through the Mississippi, will have a shorter route d> Chicago than to Toledo. 
Up io this time, Chicago has had a greal advantage over Toledo, in the more rapid 
developemenl of the country broughi within her commercial control, by being made the 
focus of the mosl perfec! system of railways anywhere to be found in the world These 
railways, traversing, for hundreds of miles, in several directions, fertile prairie lands, 
requiring but a minimum of labor to bring them under cultivation, have, in various waysj 
encouraged their occupation, so thai the} have already, to a greal extent, reached the 
maximum of their products exportable through Chicago. Toledo, on the other hand, has 
been Burrounded by a dense fores! of timber, for hundreds of miles. The demand for timber 
is, now, opening this fores! ofrich lands to cultivation, with profil to the owners; so that, 
with the extention of railways in progress and abonl to be constructed, for the benefit of 
Toledo, a more even race with the prairie city maj be relied on. Indeed, it will be strange 
if the woodland city dues nut soon exhibil decided proofs of a higher rale of progress. 

We will now go back a little in our discussion t i give additional reasons why New York 
will overtake ami surpass London. For the firsi time in the enumeration of the people of 
the two nations, of which these cities are the commercial capitals, to-wit: in I860 for the 
United States, and 1861 tor the United Kingdom, tin' United Stales were ascertained to be 
the more populous. The increase of the United States, during the preceding decade, was35 
percent.; thai of the United Kingdom, LO per cent. The aggregate increase of the United 
States was 8,251,445; of the United Kingdom, 2,249,355. At this lime. L868, the population 
of the United States exceeds that of the United Kingdom some seven millions. Inthesame 
decade, New York with her suburbs — Brooklyn, Jersey City, etc. — increased TO per cent., 
in amount 520,888, while London, on a basis three times as great, increased hut 440,798. 
The result id' this decade represents fairly the law of growth of the two nations and their 
capitals. Cities, like individuals, have a law of growth that may be said to be constitutional 
and inherent. For instance: London developes numbers at aboul the annual average rate of 
two per cent., and New York, five per cent. These ratesare, approximately, accurate for long 
periods, hitt not to he relied on lor one year, or any short period of years. These remarks 
apply to the following named cities' rates of growth. They approximate the true law of 
their annual growth : Chicago, 12 1-2 per cent.; Toledo, 12 per cent.; Milwaukee, Detroit, 
Cleveland, Cincinnati, Buffalo and St. Louis, about 8 per cent. These cities are the principal 
places which can justly claim to be on or near the line of march id' the centre of the 
industrial power of the Continent ; and they do not fail to indicate, by their rapid growth, 
their claim to future greatness. More and more industrial power centres in cities. More 
and more these cities find their lies) positions, and. consequently, mosl rapid developemenl, 
in a climate requiring and producing vigorous men. Mosl of the greal cities of Europe are 
north of fche 45th parallel of latitude; the modern and most thriving of them are above the 
50th parallel. A similar climate in the United States, east id' the Rocky Mountains, is 
found in the range between the 40th and 45th parallel. Within these we find our chief city 
developement. [See Appendix, D]. .Much error has prevailed respecting i lie merits of id i male 
in the production and modification of the besi plants and animals for the use of man, and, 

i>\ their use, of the besl ra< fmen. Manx suppose an equible climate, having tin.' least 

deviation from a uniform temperature, is besl for man. and the productions which go to 
make up human growth and social developement. Others believe a /rm-m climate, with 
moderate variations of temperature, mosl favorable to human happiness and political 



12 

power — a climate existing chiefly between the tropics and latitude 38. In the infancy of 
society, these views were more nearly correct than they are now. In the early Btages of 
progress from a savage Inwards a civilized condition, a semi-tropical climate was evidently, 
beat calculated to enable the first steps to 1"' taken towards a civilized condition. Tropical 
man, near the ocean level, lived with little need of exertion of body or mind. Fruii 
growing without hie labor or car.' supplied him with fond: clothing was n<>t needed to 
guard him against cold. Little labor was required I" give bim all needed shelter. And bo, 
there being no necessity to labor, or to invent, he lived, and he still lives, in a condition 
but a few grades above the beasts which surround him. The man of. the warm climate, 
outside of the tropics, has need of more exertion and contrivance to save him from the 
pains of hunger and cold, and bo he, from necessity, developes more active faculties, and 
becomes more of a man than the man of the tropics. Yet a moderate amount of exertion 
and contrivance serves his turn, and he progresses bIowIj towards a higher civilization. 
Next, above the man of a warm climate, comes the man of higher latitudes, and countries bul 
little elevated above the ocean level ; for example : the people living on the borders of the 
British Channel, the North Sea, and the Baltic. Their climate is, comparatively, equible, 
lint lias enough of the cold of winter and the heats of summer to make it necessary for them 
to put forth a larger measure of activity and contrivance to keep themselves comfortably fed, 
clothed and sheltered. The man of north-western Europe lias made greater advances in 
power, by virtue of his necessities, and the blessings resulting from them, than the man of 
the lower latitudes, whoso wants are less numerous and urgent lint he is not the hest 
possible man. There is a climate which has the capacity to produce a better man. Thai 
climate is characterized, by Humboldt, as an excessive climate ; and, also, as a continental 
climate. It is a climate of extremes of heal and cold, of very hoi summers and very cold 
winters, accumulating during the cold of winter a nervous susceptibility in animals, and 
something analogous in plants, which enhances the effect of the greal snnun t heat, in the 
evolution of vegitable growth and of animal activity and power. It is believed to be 
historically true thai the best race of man. and the plants and animals best adapted to 
maintain his superiority, originated in a continental climate, having a greal range of 
temperature. When he has changed his residence and made a new home, in hot or equible 
climates, he has, uniformly, deteriorated in character, and it has been, only, when he has 
migrated to a climate like that of his origin that he has made tic best progress in en ilizat ion 
ami true manhood. The elevated regions of this excessive climate, in tin middle latitudes, 
are believed to be the best for this race of men. North America affords a laTger area 
appropriate for the developement of this race, than the Eastern Continent. In this continent 
will be brought together the largest and most active portion of this race, and on its greal 
interior plain will grow up the greatest aggregation, the greatest cation, the last and noblest 
en i] lire of man. Its climate gives the greatest nervous and muscular power to man, and the 
animals best adapted to his wants. It enables him to grow the greatest varietj of best cerials, 
the best fruits, and the best animals for his use, as well as the best material for his clothing 
and shelter. No other region of the globe, of dike extent, can equal it. in its capacity to 
produce the best fruits adapited to the health and enjoyment of the best race of men. 
Humboldt, in his "Aspects of Nature," testifies to the superiority of the grape grown near 
Astrachan. in the excessive climate of eastern Europe, near latitude 4<i degrees, over the 
besi table grapes of Spain, Italy and France. The best apples and pears in the world. 
originating in accidental seedlings due to the climate, are grown in the United states. 
There are small portions of interior Europe and Asia in which the continental climate may 
equal, in life-giving power, the best portions of the United States but their inhabitants 
are less advanced in knowledge, and, as a whole, are decidedly inferior in strain id' blood. 
They are also lees favorably placed for commerce, external and internal : and they live under 
inferior political organizations. The best climate and soil for the best race of men in .North 



13 

America are, in extent, ample for the support of all of thai race now living, and all its 
augmenting numbers for centuries to come. Il contains, also, climates and soils adapted to 
the constitutions of other and inferior races. The Mack race not only lias health and a 
rapid increase, in the warmesl portions, but ii improves in moral and physical condition; 
and there are considerable sections where Asiatics, Mongolian and Malay will probably 
find a convenient resting-place. The rapid movement, in the direction of unity of the 
commerce of the human family, is no1 inconsistent with diversity of race location and 
occupation, but is in accordance with them. Two modern agents — steam and electricity — greatly 
favor the movement, and we may confidently expect, not only a greal extension and 
improvemeni of these agents, but the introduction of others id' still greater potency. More 
than ever before, the future is pregnant with great events. Even the next generation may 
cease to wonder at the advances in power of their fathers, in the much greater progress of 
their own time. Willi the present agencies, and in the present inchoate condition of the 
unitary progress of the world's commerce, London comes nearer being its heart and brain 
than any other city. Until New York becomes nearly as populous and rich, she cannot 
hops to give the chief impulse to the world's commerce. 15ut, so surely as the laws of 
na' ure vindicate themselves, in the production of their recognized effects, so surely will New 
York supercede London. Before the year of grace, L900, thirty-two years from this time, 
New York will commence her career as the world's queen city. Eow long will it be before 
one or more of her western children will dispute her queenship and dethrone her ? Let us 
calculate the progress of the western movement of empire. Let lis estimate the increase of 
population and wealth, as it flows westward, and learn, approximately, where will be the 
centre of its power, in 50 years, in 15 years, iu LOO years. As a basis of this calculation il 
may be well to note some principles and facts, either self-evident or too well established to 
need proof. Commerce will meet to exchange equivalent values at the place most accessible 
aud convenient. This principal applies as well to continents as to neighborhoods. It is a 
fact that home commerce, in every civilized nation, is many times mure important and 
multiplied in its transactions, than foreign commerce. This predominence, in amount and 
value, in countries of ureal extent and diversified productions, is great in proportion to 
ranee of climate and capacity to produce articles of commerce; and the disproportion 
increases with the increase of civilization and accumulated wealth. Let us apply these 
principles. New York, within this nineteenth century, is to become, more than any other 
city of the world, the centre of industrial power. What will I hen be the status of < Ihicago 
and Toledo? [See Appendix, B]. 

The population of the whole conn try, including the British Provinces north of our boundary, 
will exceed eighty millions. A. I).. L900. To bring il up to that number will not require a 
progress as rapid as the average rale, since I i'90. of this number, fifty million, al least, will 
be nearer Toledo and Chicago than to New York. If foreign commerce were out of the 
question, the principal exchanges of the country would he made in Toledo, rather than in 
New York, for I he plain reason that they could he made quicker and cheaper. Bul New 
York will then he nearer Europe and all the commerce of the Atlantic, south of Quebec. 
The companion will stand as follows: Toledo. with the advantage of being the more natural 
centre for fifty million, al home, and New York with the special advantage of. Bay four 
hundred million of foreign population, distant from one thousand to twenty thousand miles. 
Supposing the home trade to he worth fifteen limes as much, in proportion to population, 
as the foreign commerce, the excess of twenty million of people, in favor of Toledo, will 
equal three hundred million of foreigners, nearer New York, ks the result of t he comparison, 
New York would possess the advantage which one hundred million id' foreign population 
would afford her. and the greater advantage of having already the capital and other 
appliances to perform the duties of chief city of the world. What portion of the foreign 
commerce may fall to the share of the interior city before the year 1900, cannot 1 stimated, 



14 

and, for that reason, is lefi oui of the comparison. Ii is noi claimed that Toledo will 
endanger the leadership of our great Atlantic citj in 32 years. How will they stand in 50 
years— Anno Domino, 1918? Before thai year there will be several Pacific railways 
spanning the continent, and several large cities on the Pacific side of the continent, gathering 
in the commerce of the north Pacific, and prepared to cany on a greal commerce with the 
leading cities ofthe interior plain, and of the Atlantic border. The commerce, gathered in 
the Pacific cities, will meet, "somewhere, the gathered commerce of the Atlantic, centered 

chiefly in New York, Bosl md Quebec. The best portions of Europe and Asia « ill strike 

hands over our continent. Where will be the place of their meeting ? Will it be New York 'i 
( >nr borne commercial Bystem will then embrace aboul one hundred and thirty million. < >f 
this nnmber, there will live not less than ninety-live million nearer Toledo than to New 
York ; and some thirty-live million nearer to New York : giving an excess of borne 

population of sixty million in favor of Toledo, equal, in c mercial power, to nine hundred 

million foreigners. New York will not then monopolize our foreign commerce. All the 
commerce commanded by the Gulf of St. Lawrence and Hudson's Bay, may be more 
conveniently brought into connection with Toledo. There will, then, be the Pacific 
commerce, in the track of which, between the two oceans, Toledo and Chicago will be 
situated. It is not for us to know what extension of the commerce of eastern Asia with the 
United States will take place, in the coming fifty years. It seems probable thai there will 
be a large migration from Japan, China, ana possibly India, to the western coast of oui 
country. Our undeveloped resources call for all the labor and skill which can be brought 
from the over-peopled lands of Asia and Europe. Hunger is an imperative master which 
will bring to the land of plenty many millions now Buffering under its power. Jt would be 
to leave an important clement out of the calculation, not to give much weigh! to the effect 
this anticipated migration of the Asiatics may have in determining the position of the greal 
c Mitral city of 1968 : or,- indeed, of the city of 1918. 'I""- coming 50 years will probablj do 
more for the concentration of the world's trafic than all th ■ war- of th ■ past. It is but 61 
years since Fulton demonstrated the practicability of using steam, as a motive power, in 
navigation, and it was not till many years alter thai it became much more than an 
experiment. Now, all waters are witnesses of its triumphs. Steam-propelled cars and ships 
will, before the 50 years will have passed, bring within their power the great body of the 
world's commerce, and cause all races of men to fraternize, in commercial transactions. It 
is hut 4o years since the tirst locomotive on a railway (the Liverpool h Manchester) proved 
its power to draw, with much speed, a train of cars. Three years will scarcely pass away 
before it will triumph over the Rocky Mountains, in its passage across the broad continent 
of North America. Jt is not unreasonable to anticipate thai an iron or Bteel track, for it,- 
use, will, before the end offiftj years, bestride the greal Eastern Continenl from the North 
Sea and British Channel, around which the commerce of Europe centres, to the Yellow Sea 
of tin- Pacific, the central sea of the commerce of eastern Asia. It is quite evident, even now. 
that commerce moved <n> l<n<<l will, very sunn, in- vastly greater Hunt commerce moved <m tin 
water, though the means by which both are carried on will be greatly improved. In large 
portions of our continent, every acre may furnish food for land commerce, whereas, the 
oceans anil greal seas are almost waste places, in the lack of means to furnish commercial 
equivalents. L'ntil a few years past, transportation, by land, has been so slow and costlj 
that countries bordered by navigable waters possessed great advantage of intercourse over 
interior lands, and. in consequence, almost monopolized the world's great commerce. A 
revolution is now in rapid progress that will change the relations of these localities, and give 
to interior positions a controlling advantage over those on the ocean borders. As yet, few 
persons seem to appreciate this greal revolution, in its power to change the plac - besl for 
concentrating the world's commerce. Chicago and Toledo unite, in a marked degree, the 
advantagesof both land and water transport. The coasts of the great lakes, some 5,000 



15 

miles iii extent, offer a large field for home navigation, and the certaintj of a commodious 
water channel, connecting them with the ocean, insures to them advantages of navigable 
intercourse with the outer world. When the fertile lands around them become densely filled, 
with an industrious and intelligeni population, il isdifficnll to imagine impeding causes thai 
can prevenf them from becoming the greal centres of the trade of our continent. The 
probability of the attainmenl of Buch high destinj will, when known, induce m<'n of 
intelligence to selecl for themselves and familes homes in and near these cities. The climate) 
for pleasantness and health, is among the besl easi of the elevated and barren plateau of the 
Rock] Mountains. Each has, on the borders of its home lake, a fruii climate and soil noi 
excelled, if equaled, easi of thai plateau. 

It is difficull for many persons to bring their minds to contemplate, as possible, a future 
differing materially from the presenl and the past. It is only those who have studied the 
course of human progress, and its tendancj towards a more perfeci society and a more 
general union of races, in commercial operations, who can appreciate, at their proper value, 
facts and arguments thai go to show results differing from and greater than ;m\ heretofore 
manifested. As men I in •una' more enlarged in their views, and have a truer comprehension 
of the laws governing matter and mind, they become fitted to more extended relations with 
their fellow-men. It is the same with societies and nations. Theyhavemore and more 
points of friendly contact, so that tribes grow into nations, and nations are enlarged to 
embrace all homogeneous l'aces. As nations interact and mingle, international amenities 
ripen into a feeling of brotherhood, so thai it is only following oui the course of events to 
anticipate, as the crowning result, one greal centre — one city of the world — which shall be 
the acknowledged focus and radiating poini of its wealth, intelligence and moral power. 
Such cities London and Paris are striving to be, and. in a qualified degree, arc They will 
approach that condition, when, in a few shorl years, there shall be communication bj 
connecting telegraphy with all quarters of the globe, so that people the most distant may 
hold daily intercourse with each other. These cities, for a time, will remain the world's 
acknowledged chief centres of though! and action, and with increasing power. 

Bui events in our time evolve rapidly, and. especially, in city growth. In a period of 
not more than half a century, the western movement of population ami wealth, in one 
swelling tide, will have increased the power of the chief city of the Western Continent to a 
degree enabling if to overshadow the greatesl European capitals. London and New York 
have each an established rate of increase, as proved by successive enumerations, in each 
decade of the current century. London has grown at a rate that doubles its number once 
in 4n years, commencing in L801. Carried forward through three duplications, it exhibits 
the following results: ism. 958,863; 1841, 1,917,726; 1881,3,835,452; L921, 7,670,904 
New York, commencing, in 1800, with 60,489, has, with its dependenl suburbs, doubled its 
numbers, on an average, in 15 years. ( larrj ing that rate of increase up to L920, its numbers 
will he 15,484,784. This will i„. considered an incredible result. With present and 
improving means of communication, the ability to grow and support great cities, as the 
country becomes populous and rich, musl he admitted. Even with presenf means of transit, 
the outer boundaries of city and suburban residences extend tens of miles from the business 
centre of N"ew York. A radius of fifty miles will no! he too extended to embrace, before 
tin' end of the presenl century, the people draw ing theirchief support from the city. Within 
two hour's time all within that radius may he carried to or from the chief business centre 
and their homes ; most of them within one hour. There is nothhing, therefore, in the 
greatness of this number, to warrant distrust of its attainment. If its growth shall be checked, 
it w ill not he because our cities, generally, n ill receive a smaller proportion of our population 
than heretofore. It were easj to prove that the proportion will he increased. If New York 
fail- of ii- proportionate growth, it can only be because a western rival is gaining, at her 
expense. The movement of men and money, in a constant!] broadening and deepening 



LO 

current, from the A (Ian lie States, westward, into the interior of our continent, compels as 
to anticipate a successful rival, to grow up within thai broad plain emhracing the basins of 
the St. Lawrence and Mississippi, and the country north of them. We are also compelled, 
by the evidences furnished during forty years, of the power of lake cities to concentrate the 
commerce of the greai plain, t<> believe them destined to dominate the location of the greal 
interior city. Mure and more they have drawn trade from the greai river valleys of the 
plain, proving the superiority of their posit ion to that of cities on the borders of the greai 
rivers The general direction of the lakes being easl and west, and so in the line 

of the greai c nerce of the world, gives the cities on their borders, .-placed in or near this 

line, very greai advantages over all others. [See Appendix, !•]. 

II lines not seem unreasonable to expect Toledo to continue, fur mam years, to grow aa 
fast, in proportion, as il has since 1840, when its firsi census was taken. From thai time il 
has labored under many disadvantages which are either uo longer operative, or are being 
removed. For years, the few country people, depended on for its support, weakened by 
lexers, incident tn a new country, had very little surplus \\ ith n hich to trade. The new eii\ 
was sickly, and was reputed to be so in an extraordinary degree. It had. as rivals, on all 
sides, towns of better reputation and larger size. It had to overcome, under these and other 
disadvantages, the rivaly, mie after another, lirst of its nearest neighbors, and. afterwards, of 
ii- more remote. These rivals. Perrysburg, Staumee, Monroe, Adrian, and Sandusky City, 
were, comparatively, old and established places of business before Toledo existed. Now. and 
hereafter, il has for reputed rivals, Detroit. Cleveland, Cincinnati and Chicago. Under all 
these disadvantages, it has increased, in the aggregate of the thirty-eight years, over 12 per 
cent, annually. There appears to be no reason to expect a lower per centage of increase for 
many years. hereafter. As aids to itsgrow th it will have not only the direct trade of farmers. 
as ai first, but of villages, towns, small cities, and. ultimately, of large cities. It is thus 
that citiesof greai inhereni merits of location grow faster as they grow larger, and. with recently 
invented appliances, all aid each other. There is not any necessary antagonism. It is besl 
I'm- all that each should avail of its inherent advantages, and soall flourish together. There 
are abundant resources for all. Jealousy and antagonism are unwise, for they react and 
injure where they design to benefit. The better city may noi he moved to us, but we maj 
move to it. The choice is open. There is room in the hest localities as ample as in the 
1 rest. 

The day may come when steam-propelled canal-boats will connect the commerce of the 
Ohio River, at Cincinnati, with that of the Lakes, ai Toledo; and. also, the commerce of 
the Mississippi, at Rock Island, with that of the Lakes, at Chicago and Toledo. The time 
may he fairly anticipated when an improved railroad, little over two hundred miles in 
length, will bring the railway commerce of Chicago in connection with lake transportation 
to the harbor of Toledo. It is only a question of the relative cosi of freight, by 220 miles 
of railway and 700 miles of hike. 

The day will surely come when Toledo and Chicago will have a good water-way, for lake 
vessels to the ocean, and by more than one route. Three new routes are practicable. That 
from Buffalo, by enlarging the capacity of the Erie Canal; from Oswego to Albany, occupying 
the same route alone- the Mohawk : and that by way of the St. Lawrence, the Caughuawaga 
Canal, to Lake Champlain, and thence to Albany. These are all practicable, without greai 
cost The route now in use. by way of the Welland Canal and St. Lawrence, to Montreal, 
needs only a moderate enlargement of its locks and canals to allow the passage of large 
propellers between the upper lakes and the ocean. 

If it is true that the movement of human power is SO surely westward as to make il 
reasonably certain thai .New York will become greater than London ; if it is true that this 
movement will carry a great preponderance of numbers and wealth into the greai central 
plain; if it is true thai the home commerce of the continent, moved on land and water, 



i: 

is iMu greatly in excess of its foreign commerce, and constantlj increasing in proportion ; if 
it is true thai this home commerce concentrates more and more in cities of II13 interior 
plain; if il is true thai the lake cities concentrate this home commerce more than the 
river cities of the plain ; if ii is true that, of all the lake cities, Chicago and Toledo grow 

faster, by virtue of their power to bring to themselves a greater primarj 1 merce than any 

other lake cities; if commerce by land is becoming much more important, in our country, 
than commerce by water; if all these are true lads, does il not follow, ae surelj as 
the day succeeds the night, thai the great city of the future will be in our great interior 
plain ; and, with reasonable certainty, may il not be anticipated thai Chicago or Toledo will 
be thai city? 

Is it because Chicago is further West than Toledo and so commands a larger extent 01 
country, in that direction, thai ii has so far out-stripped its sister of Lake Erie; or is ii 
owing to si mie other cause than the superiority ofposition ? Is nut the sufficient cause Found 
in th i facility of opening land to cultivation afforded by the inviting prairie on all sidi 
the former, and the difficulty of divesting theso^lof the heavy foresi surrounding the latter? 
To test the relative merit of the position of these cities respectively, lei as suppose Chicago 
to have been surrounded by a dense forest, and the whole country within the reach of its 
natural commercial command, like thai which surrounded Toledo in 1832; which, in that 
ciinlit ion. would now be the greai ir? Do '-any on.' doubt that it would bs Toledo? Again : 
let us imagine Toledo, at that tim ■, surrounded by a region of prairies, like thai of Chicago' 
so that, the merit of position, alone, had determined their relative growth. Can there be a 
doubt that Toledo, now. would be the greater city? It is, then, the prairies, only, which 
has given Chicago the. preference. It is. then, the forest that lias retarded the growth of 
Toledo. What will be the effect of prairie ami forest, on these cities, hereafter? The prairies 
will, to a large extent, be monopolized by large holders, be cultivated by machinery, and so lie 
sparcely inhabited. The forest impediment to cultivation will, every year, grew less.. Already. 
in considerable portions, its removal is a source of profit. It is becoming an important 
source of revenue. It is being divided into small holdings and, so. increasing in density of 
population. 

If. now. khz position of Toledo has been inferior, only, because of the advantage to Chicago 
of her prairies; that inferiority is being removed and becomes a superiority, when, in 
addition to the advantage of having the ground, in sufficient quantity, opened for use, there 
remain- a valuable supply of timber land, intersperced and available, for the various purposes 
of advancing art in city ami country, at home ami for export, abroad. 

Ami. now. may it not be justly claimed that, the westward movemeni of human power 
will, much within one hundred years, bring the world's great centre of commerce to New 
York. and. if to New York, then to an interior city. — if to an interior city, then to a lake 
city. — and. if to a lake city, then to Chicago or Toledo, as the natural advantages of position 
shall finally prove more powerful to favor the one or the other. 

One hundred years ! What may we not hope of developemeni in that period; long, if 
measured by the duration of human life; short for the life of a nation, ami very short in 
comparison with the life of the human race. Looking back one hundred years, we find that 
some 4,000,000 of population of British Colonies, have grown to 10,000,000. New York, 
then, was about two-thirds the size of Toledo, now. (Mir city population has increased more 
than thirty fold. Our wealth has increased faster than our cities. One hundred years to 
come, with the command of steam, electricity, and we know not what other and superior 
agencies for wonder-working, can scarcelj fail to produce results of a magnitude beyond 
the power of the mosi vigorous imagination to conceive. The cities of western Europeare 
grand out-growths of modern Improvements, but they will be deemed, in their present 

c litioii. rude and small, in comparison with the vast emporiums which, iii one hundred 

years, will grow up on our continent. 
:: 



APPENDIX A. 



COMMERCE OF TOLEDO AND CHICAGO, 



The following tables will enable Hie reader to make comparisons as to Ibe business in some branches 
o( trade of our interior cities, and show plainly thai the great current is by the hike route, and not bj the 
Mississippi wati 

The following remarks and tables are from an official canal document, and may be relied on as 
correct : 

Jusl in the sum... proportion thai you ch lapen tran3p irtati >n yo i arc enabled to extend the boundaries 
in from which your surplus productions may be drawn to a remunerative market. This fact 
lias already enabled our enterprising merchants to penetrate the interior to such an extent that wc have 
demonstrated our ability, by artificial water communications, and the ureal lines of railroads running 
between the East and the West, al present, to compete successfully with the .ureal natural outlets which 
drain the vallej 9 of the Si Law rencc, and the still more fertile valley of the Mississippi, 

The interior of this contine it is the region whe ■ . hereafter, power— political, commercial and social- 
is to be fell in the whole administration of the Government. 

Over five hundred million of dollars have already been expended in opening lines of railway 
communication between the food-producing region of the West and the Atlantic seaboard. This sum is 
in lependent of the amount expended in the construction of the Erie and Oswego Canals, upon which has 
been borne the ureal proportion of all the produi ts of the West, seeking a market in the East. 

The completion of the Erie Canal first Stimulated a trade that has since attained such gigantic 
proportions. 

From an able itatistieal article, prepared by II. V. Poor, Esq . Secretary of the Pacific Railway Company, 
we learn that, as late as i^iT, the number of tons of western produce, reaching tide water through the 
Erie Canal, was only 56,225. In 1861 it had increased to 2,156,000. for the present year, 186?, it will 
probably reach more than '■'< ouO.OOO. 



■lo 

The following table will show the ratio of this increase up lo 1800, with the cost, including tolls, ol 
transporting a ton ol merchandise from lake Erie lo the Hudson : [It h;is increased greatly since I860]. 



"Y" IE .A. IRS . 






Cost per Ton. 



1*37 56,255 

1838 - 83,233 

i i •• 121,071 

1840 - 158,148 

1841 - 231,170 

1842- 231.477 

1843... 250,376 

is 14 303,025 

1845 - 304,551 

1846 506,830 

I si; _ 812.840 

1848 - 650,154 

is Hi 768,659 

1850 .- - - - 773,858 

1851. 966,993 

1852 1.1 51, (ITS 

1853 1,213,090 

1854 1,100,526 

1855 1,092,876 

1856 1,212,550 

1857 -.- - 919,998 

1858- - - 1,273,099 

1859.. 1,036,634 

1860. --. - 1,500,000 




Of the tonnage of the Canal, delivered at tide-water, in 1800, 1,367,56 I tons were cereals, and 12, 524 tons 
animal food. The Erie and Central Railroads, the same year, brought to tide-water 425,185 tons of 
animal, and 540,000 tons of vegetable food ; almost the whole of it the product of the West The value 
nfthe vegetable and animal food, of the three lines, was equal to $1Ts,ooO,000. The other great lines 
such as the Ogdensburgh, Pennsylvania, Baltimore ami Ohio, swelled the aggregate value to at l<ast 
$225,000,000. Against this volume of trade the New Orleans Prist Current makes the following 
statement, showing the total exports, coastwise and foreign, of produce from that port, lor i860, the year 
before the navigation of the Mississippi was interrupted. 



EXPORTS TO 


FLOUR, 
BBLS. 


roitK, 

BBLS. 

SliS 

3,097 

15,572 

89 

1,307 

3,120 


BACON 

CASKS. 


LARD, 
BBLS. 


BEEF, 
BBLS, 


CORN, 

SACKS. 


New York, 


10,862 

41,524 

247,231 

6,341 

6,478 

74,115 


271 
91 

28,565 

1,401 
805 


9,948 
1,061 

300 

7.3110 

T.S40 

37,380 

6,461 

TO.852 


9,878 

1,699 

10 

3,019 

5,495 

735 

S03 

21,699 


37,213 




23,410 


Philadelphia 

Other Coastwise Ports, 

Cuba, - 

Other Foreign Purls, 


49S.II 10 
52,448 
37,1105 
14,288 








386,511 


53,050 


80,093 


652,370 







■.'I 



The St. Louts Price < 'urn nt, of December 31st, contains the subjoined statement of the receipts at that 
port for the year 1861, 1863 and 1863. The exports are not given; to estimate their amount it will be 
necessary to deduct what would be used for consumption, by the city. 



1861. 



Cotton,bales 

Tobacco.hhds 8,510 

Kemp.bales ----- 38,568 

Lead, pigs - 1! 1,250 

Flour, bbls - 1,178,110 

Wheat, bushels ■-- 2,654,278 



Corn, bushels. 

OatS, bushels 

Pork, Mils 

Pork, casks and ii' rces - 

Pork, boxes 

Pork, i i ices 

Bacon, cks 

Bacon, bbls. and boxes 

Bacon, pieces 

Lard, tierces 

Lard, bbls 

Lard, kes 



4.515(1110 

1,735,157 

116,445 

11,352 

ii 

751,813 

11,780 

10,820 

106.0(H) 

27,231 
12,837 

11 815 



1862. 

38,430 

33,050 

78,317 

95,800 

1,554,279 

S,850,335 

1,734 210 

$,185,048 

51,187 

6,615 

3,580 

487,580 

10,838 

10,352 

106,315 

19,407 

24,975 

5.993 



1863. 

27,500 

19,380 

: :, ,-jo; 

78,81 I 

1,40; 668 

L,239,t!50 

$,771,848 

35,300 

1,130 

2,155 

oio.: so 

7,070 

8,700 

4(1, ISO 

16,600 

22,976 



TAKEN PROM ANNUAL STATEMENT OF EXPORTS OP ST. LOUIS AND CINCINNATI. 

BY W. W. BAKER. 





18 5 8. 


CINCINNATI. 
BUSHELS. 


ST. I.ol IS. 




BUSHELS. 


Barley 




400 067 
1 090,236 

598,950 

64,358 

1,211,543 

3, 169.590 


406,000 


Corn 


900,000 


Oats 


1,690,562 

46 194 


Rye 


Wheat 


3,835,759 




1,861.196 



FLOUR AND GRAIN. 
The following will show ihc comparative receipts of Flour and Grain al the following named places 

for tive years : 



NEW YOKK. 

1861. 1862. 



PI '.barrels 4,968,971 5,384,872 



u heat, bi 

( lorn, bushels .. . 

t i.ils, bushels 

Barley, bushels , 
K\ e, bushels.. . 



Total On \in. Bl SIIELS. 



23,429,135 29,280,629 

20,725,166 18,518,799 

1,852,009 5,435,016 

775,762 957,729 

1,834,801 1,875,615 

51,616,373 56,061 



1863. 



1864. 



1865. 



4,574,0511 4,147,500 3,687,775 



17,937,858 13,078,540 9,164 135 

14,243,599 7,254,595 15,552,843 

11,076,035 11,480,805 8,739,600 

2,143,485 2,313,865 2,994,810 

180,507 186,395 884,185 



15,831,542 36,614,200 37,339,903 



IS I !•' !•' ,VLO. 










1863. 


1864. 


1865. 




2,978,089 


2,02- 530 


1,780,898 






24,240,348 

30,086,951 

7,882,187 

641,449 

422,300 
131,820 


17,677,540 
10,478,681 
11,682,687 

465,057 

635 72 7 

96,845 

41,044,496 


13,487,888 
19 840 901 


< Ills, bushels 


8,484.798 
820 -"iii:; 


I!\e, bushels 


S17 672 




61 9' 






Total Grain, Bushels 


49,845,065 


42,473,223 



•.'■• 

CHICAGO. 

1861. 1862. 1863. 1864. 1865. 

Flour, barrels 1,446,137 1,663,391 1,536,691 1,148,471 1,180,551 

Wheat, bushels.. ... 17,681,909 13,738,116 11,181,344 11,370,493 9,465,618 

Corn, bushels 26,543,2 (3 29,499,323 26,450,508 18,596,205 25,125,638 

Oats, bushels 1,888,250 1,1 12 11,139,525 14,404,895 10,337,899 

Barley, bushels 896,134 1,910,878 1,098,346 774,499 1,505,7.14 

Rye.busbels 839,760 901,242 1,166,609 

Total Ghain, Bushels. 54,093,219 57,558,950 48,708,483 40,836,834 47.091,018 

MILWAUK E K. 





1861. 


1862. 


1863. 

453,747 

18,974,039 
359,052 
949,564 
206,513 
162,623 


1864. 


1865. 


Flour, barrels 


492,259 


529,000 

15,013.055 
258,456 
287,765 

•»./il 573 


295,225 


372,925 




W beat, bushels 


15,980,706 
11 1,931 
131,256 
140,439 


9,147,274 
460,575 

1,055,844 

198,325 

88,541 


1 ) ,859,242 
276,71 I 
649,485 
1 4<i 722 


Corn, bushels 

Oats, bushels 

Barley, bushels.. 


Rye, bushels 


13T 259 










Total Grain, Bushels 


18,778,027 


19,104,719 


15,C51,687 


10,950,659 


13,072,036 



T O L E I > O 





1861. 


1862. 


1863. 1864. 


1865. 1866. 1867. 




1,406,476 

0,277,400 

5,812,038 

41,428 

43,25; 


1,585,335 

9,827,629 

8,813,709 

234,759 

107,506 


1,126,260 1,052,474 

0,194,130 7,337,099 

l,705,n!iii 1,041,160 

;:::;, I'.ii: 454254 

608 74,681 

21,52'.i 39,435 


1,068,102 730,207 008,004 

4,731,803 1,812,899 2,150,875 

1,613,068 4,439,908 5,747,005 

845,001 1,218,279 1,038,293 

113,087 102,850 48,399 

78.141 340,864 223.474 


Wheat, bushels 

Corn, bushels 

< (ats, bushels 

Barley, bushels 

Rye, bushels. 


Total Grain, Bi shels 


18,700,510 


21,910,228 


8,695,159 8,846,623 


7,711,648 



The annexed table shows the total value of Exports and Imports of Toledo, for each of the 
following yea is : 



1858, total value. 

1860, " " . 

1861, " " . 
1863, " " . 
18611, " " . 
1867, " " . 



I M l'o UTS. 



EXPORTS. 



31,700,085 s 85.460,031 

10,727.754 52,213,627 

81,180,366 95,005,758 

158967,01 i' 1 77 547,071 

161,652,597 181,329,496 

167,786,626 185,1 15,090 



DKTHOIT. 



Flour, barrels. 



1863. 1864. 1865. 

1,081,298 825,537 848,138 



Wheal, bushels. 
Corn, bushels. .. 
( >aK bushels . . 
Barley, bushels. 
Rye, bushels. . . 



i oi ll Grain, Bushels 3,438,048 



2,222,66(1 

356,205 

656,496 

188,253 

17,344 



22 7,417 
851,756 

9,618 



1,497,197 

407,773 

394,504 

2 1 9.01 is 

24,202 



1,432,865 2,613 





1862,'G3. 


( lorn, sacks 


265,934 


( litis, bushels .... 


937,139 


Wheat, bushels... 


1,232,961 


Flour, barrels . . - 


405,570 


( 'otton, bales 


45,998 


Rj e, bushels. . .. 


25,115 



23 

EXPORTS OF CINCINNATI. 



,'63. 1863,'6-1. 1864,'65. 1865,'66. 1866,'67. total \ \i i i: exports 



851.392 
943,737 
393,268 

24.340 



342,753 

686,893 

136,186 

89,485 

15,000 



385.843 
147,091 
873,775 
51 1,450 
152,061 
24,381 



549.942 
295 822 
972.982 
112,068 
1 H,250 
106,319 




EXPORTS OP CHICAGO. 



Corn, bushels 

( >:i i s. bushels . . 

Wheat, bushels 

Flour, barrels 

mshels 



1862, '63. 

29,452,610 

3,1 i 
13.808,898 

1,739,849 



1863, '64. 

24.906,934 
9,909,175 

10,759,152 

1,507,816 

D83.940 



1864, '65. 

12,740 543 

16,470,929 

10,249,330 

1,287,545 

683,946 



1865, '66. 1866, '67. 



25,228,526 

10,598,061 

8,098.968 

1,523,786 

1,032,200 



32,953,530 
9,564,223 

10,341,549 
2,197,787 
1,489,895 



The fol 



lowing are the routes by which the Grain Exports of Chicago, for the year 1867, were carried : 





I'l.OUli, 
BARR] 


win; rr, 
Bl SIIBLS. 


CORN, 

l.l SHELS. 


OATS, 
l-.l SHELS. 


RYE, 
BUSHELS. 


BARLEY, 
BTJSHE1 B. 


By Western and Southern Railroads 
By Eeastern Railrods 


481,491 

21 S 

130,522 

1,554,776 


5,827,846 

235,758 

908,085 

15,618 


31,451,885 

243,513 

1, 4.52,1 II'.' 


7,395,113 

99,132 

158,314 

1, 911, 7114 


1,029,629 

3,586 

29,219 

127,461 


IISS/.'4'I 

60 

111,657 

:;'.is,:i7l 



APPENDIX IB 



In deducing, from their pasl history, the law of growth of our cities, ii must nut be inferred that it 1ms 
no limit of time ami numbers. It is evident, when cities grow much faster than the country which 
contains them, thai they t.\ i 1 1 reach a limit at which their progress will he Blackened, and, finally stopped 
In a fully developed country, the cities will contain more lhan hall' the people. It is obvious that a time 
will arrive when both country ami city will have obtained their maximum of population. Wo may fairly 
expect longer life for tin- cities of our great plain, ami a longer continuance of the law of growth manifested 
in their early lite, than for the cities of "hi ami well developed countries. Tie y should grow rapidly, as 
long as the country which sustains them grows in numbers ami wealth. 

From 1840, when the first census oi Chicago ami Toledo was taken, their average period of duplication 
iii- been live years for tin- foimcr and six years for the latter, thus : 



1SIII 
IS III 

1852 
I B58 
1864 

1870 



TOLEDO. 

2,440 
1,880 
9,760 

in. -.-jo 
89,040 



1840. 
1845. 

|s.-.V 

inch. 
1865. 
1870. 



CHICAGO. 

1. 47H 

8,940 

17.980 

35,960 

143,800 
287,680 



■J I 

These figures approximate the numbers contained in these cities, al the'various dates, and cannot vary 
much from tlie result oftl e census of 1870. 

The same ratio, carried forward to the year 1900, would give Toledo 1,249,280, and Chicago l*,4l 1,520 
This Beems absurd. A duplication of Chicago, in periods of sis years, would give 4,513,280. New York 

should then have about 6,600,000, and London about 5,< ,000; allowing the former n continued dnplii ation 

of fifteen years, and the latter of forty years. Thirty-two years seems quite ion short a period for Mich 
great changes. II we suppose Chicago to slacken her rate of growth to a duplication in seven years, from 
the year 1870 l" 1898, and then, in ten years, it will show thus : 

1S70 282,080 I 1898 4,513,380 

is;: _. 504,1110 I 1908 9,026,560 

1884 1.128,420 l'JIS... 18,053,120 

1891 2,256,640 | 

Allowing Toledo a continued duplication in periods of six years, her numbers, in 1918, would be 9,994,240 
These are large estimates, for fifty years. The reader will pmbably require fifty years, in addition, to 
satisfy himself that such numbers will be realized. The largest city, then, will lie spread over a wide 
territory, and contain not less than one twentieth of the population of the whole- country. 



APPENDIX C 



The seventeen Atlantic States, including Vermont ami District of Columbia, increased in population, 
between 1850 ami 1860, 2,759,659, on a basis of 13,106,441, being 21 35-100 per cent. 

The seventeen Interior and Gulf States, with seven Territories, during the same time, increased 5,567,095 
on a basis ol 9,885,935, being at the rale of 56 41-100 per 'cut. 

The six north-eastern States gained, from lHoO to 1860, 407,185. 

The following shows the amount of increase, in the six north-western Lake States: Ohio, 359,270 
Indiana, 362,368 ; Michigan, 351,458 ; Illinois, 800,283; Wisconsin, 470,488 ; Minnesota, 155,90.5. Total 
2,559,529. 

Six River States: Kentucky, 173,308; Tennessee, 107,130, Iowa, 482,000; Missouri, 491,273; Arkansas, 
235,530 ; Kansas, 107, 100. Total, 1.586,341. 

Since 1860, the growth of the Lake States and Lake Cities have not failed lo maintain the superior 
rate, compared with slales and cities of the other sections of our country, as shown by the census of that 
year. 

POPULATION OP CITIES. 

The following table exhibits the population of our ten largest exterior a apori cities, in comparison with 
the ten largest interior cities, in 1850 and I860, showing their growth during thai interval of lime : 



Interior Cities. 


1850. 


1860. 


INCREASE 

PER (INI. 


New York, including 
Philadelphia 


Brooklyn 


and Jersey City 


658,135 

408,762 

163,318 

119,461 

136 881 

38,849 

50,763 

40.001 

41,513 

42,!>s5 


1,1811.023 

568,034 

214,040 

108.4:2 

177,902 

71.1111 

63,368 

01.400 

411,914 

51,210 




70 
39 


Baltimore 


32 


New < Mlcans 






41 


Boston 






::i 








85 


Albany 






24 


Washington 






52 

i; 




10 








1,699,708 


2,604,300 


53 



25 



Ten Interior Cities. 


1850. 


1860. 


INCREASE 

i-c i: i ext. 




115,486 

77 Ml 1 ! 
28,903 
43,261 

71,595 
43,19-1 
36,403 

21,019 
20,061 

21,400 


171,293 
Hill.r.77 
109,4 10 
81,541 
83.909 
09,740 
48,243 
46,834 
45,315 
43,550 


IS 

106 

205 

93 

17 

62 

32 

123 

124 

105 


St. Louis , 


Chicago 


Buffalo.. 


Pittsburg, with suburbs 

Louisville 


Rochester 


Detroit 


Milu aukee 


Cleveland 






479,183 


860,502 


79 



The following table gives the population, according to the United States Census Returns, of the ten 
most populous interior cities of the great eentral river region in comparison with the ten largest cities on 
the United States borders of the great lakes, in 1850 and 18G0, with the percentage of growth, separately, 
and in the aggregate : 



Ten Cities 


of* the River "Region. 


1850. 


I860. 


INCREASE 

PER CENT. 


Cincinnati 




115,436 

77,850 

71,595 

43.194 

8,851 

1(1,165 

9,408 

5,085 

6,911 

4,434 


171,293 
100,577 
83,909 
69,740 
2. ',025 
16,987 
10,471 
14.425 
13,718 
13,553 


48 




106 


Pittsburg, with Alleghany 


and Birmingham 


14 

01 




155 


Nashville 


07 




75 




183 




98 




200 






Total 




352.949 


583,409 


65 



Ten Cities of tlie Lake Region. 


1850. 


1860. 

100,430 
81,541 
40,834 
45,335 
45,550 
16,117 
13,70s 
11.113 
8,408 
8,058 


INCREASE 

PER CENT. 


ORDER OF 
GROWTH. 


Chicago 


29,293 

42,261 

21,019 

30,001 

21,400 

12,305 

3,839 

5,840 

5.1 is 7 

3,147 


265 

93 

122 

124 

105 

32 

260 

00 

57 

156 


1 


Buffalo 


7 


Detroit 


5 




4 


Cleveland 


G 


< Iswego 

Toledo 


10 
o 


Erie 


8 


Sandusky 





Grand Rapids .. . 


3 








164,811 


'1S4.14S 


133 





[FROM THE NEW YORK EVENING POST.] 

The commerce of the great plain more and more seeks the lake ports in preference to the river cities. 
Of this fact any one can get the proofs by examining the commercial reports, during the last ten years, 
of the cities of St. Louis and Chicago, and of Cincinnati and Toledo. As between the old and new states, 
the balance of population is already slightly in favor of the new. 

At the same rate of increase as from 1850 to 1860, these sections will contain, in 1870: the Atlantic 
States, 10,253,513, and the new States, 34,170,084. At present, the urban and suburban population of the 
old free States constitutes about one-third of the whole number; while in the new free States about 
five-sixth are engaged, directly or indirectly, in the cultivation of the soil. This disproportion is in process 
of rapid reduction. 

In postage, Toledo stands among all the cities of the Union : according to number of papers delivered, 
as No. 8; number of delivered letters, as No. 20; number of collected letters, as No 27. 
4 



26 

COMPARATIVE SALES OF WESTERN CITIES. 
In Chicago, last year, fifty-six firms returned sales exceeding £1,000,000, while there were fifteen each 
in St. Louis, Milwaukee and Cincinnati. In Chicago the number of firms whose sales exceeded $2,000,000, 
was fourteen ; in Cincinnati, four; St. Louis, one; Milwaukee, five. The heaviest sales reported by a 
i ngle house in Chicago, were $9,220,9(57 ; in Cincinnati, $2,700,000 ; in St. Louis, $3,127,223 ; in Milwaukee. 
$5,824,000. 

VALUE OF MAUFACTURE8 IN THE UNITED STATES IN 1850 AND 18G0. 
According to the census returns, at these two periods, the capital employed in this department of our 

national industry ;vas: 

In 1150. .*. $ 527,200,193 

In 18G0 1,159,000,000 

The number of hands employed was ; 

in 18o0 r F ,. m . lk , s <,.,,--,., 

Tn iQffk } Males 1.100,000 

111 100U fFemales 285,000 

The value of the annual product was : 

In 1850 $1,013,336,468 

In 1860 1,900,000,000 

Establishments having an annual product of less than $500 are not included in either census returns. 

Increase of capital per cent, during the ten years : 

In all the States and Territories 100 per cent. 

In all the Southern and Southwestern States 80 " 

In the New England States 64 " " 

In the Middle States - 97 " " 

In the Western States 152 " " 

The percentage of increase in annual value of products : 

In all the States and Territories '. 87 per cent- 

In the Southern and Southwestern States 81 " " 

In the New England States.. 80 '• " 

In the Middle Slates 70 " " 

In the Western States 109 " " 

Increase per cent in number of hands employed : 

In all the States and Territories > * Ialcs , £ per cent. 

) Females 20 

In the Southern and Southwestern States I S^ffi fn « " 

j Females 10 

In the New England States [ f^^""."V ."."."."".""." '."'. '.'.'. '. III"l7 " " 

in the Middle states } F^io7:y//.;y :;::;:::::::::::::::;:1 :: :: 

In the WesternSta.es f ^7." ".7 777777777777797; « » 

From the above figures it appears that the increase in males employed was nearly double that of 
females, fiir the whole country; and only in the Western States was the increase per c:-nt. greater in 
females than males. 



APPENDIX D. 



There is a philosophy of climatical influence, in the character of man, animals and plants which can be 
well developed, exemplified and illustrated, only, by a familiar knowledge of these departments of 
natural history. As I have not that knowledge, I will only express my belief that the best possible 
climate, for the attainment of their highest and best characteristics, is that which requires the exertion of 
their utmost powers to overcome the obstacles which it interposes to their developement. Caucasian man 
has proved that climate, lor himself, and the animals and plants promotive of his highest good, to be 
within a few degrees of the annual isotherm of 50 degrees Farenhcit. The elevated, and, generally, 
barren plain of Arabia, produced a race so powerful that it, seemingly, makes an exception to the law 
above expressed, but the anomily is only so when not understood. The Arab man and the Arab horse 
improved in character when transplanted to a colder climate with greater extremes of temperature. 



THE ZONE OF GREAT CITIES 

Disturnell, tne geographer, in a paper read before the American Geographical and Statistical Society, 
of New York, in 1860, on the influence of climate, etc., on tne growth of cities, gives a list of cities, with 
their population, in different /.ones of climate. In the middle zone, having a mean animal temperature 
between 4S and 52 degrees Fahrenheit, his list embraces most of the great cities of the world, having an 
aggregate population of 9,233,984 His list of cities in the northern zone, having a mean annual 
temperature between 40 and 48 degrees Fahrenheit, embraces an aggregate population of 2,*19,418 ; and 
in the warmer zone, having a mean annual temperature between 52 and GO degrees Fahrenheit, an 
aggregate of 5,850,000. The zone between 48 and 52 degrees is a narrow belt, the middle line of which 
passes through Astrachan, Odessa, Vienna, near Paris, through London, Liverpool, Dublin, New York. 
Toledo, near the south end of Lake Michigan, Omaha, on the Missouri, and bearing south in the elevated 
plateau of the continent, thence takes a north-west direction to the Pacific, at the south end of Van 
Couver Island. This zone is much wider in central and western Europe, and on the Pacific coast, than 
elsewhere. Its course through Asia, is nearly on the line of latitude of Pekin, and is not wide. The 
cities of the warm zone are making a slower growth than those of the coldest zone; but those in the 
middle temperate zone are growing much faster than either of the others. For example: London is put 
down at 2,357,705, and now contains over 3,000,000. Paris is set down at 1,153,202, whereas a recent 
enumeration gives it over 2,100,000. Chicago is set down at 100,000, and now has twice that number. 
New York and Brooklyn are set down together at 835,000, whereas they number at least 1,250,000. Other 
cities in this list have shown a similar growth. It will not be an over-estimate of this favorite city belt 
to set down its present city population at 12,000,000. This is greater than the city population of all the 
rest of the world, thus : 

In the Torrid Zone 2,445,000 

In tne Warm Zone , 2,819,418 

In the Cold Zone _ 5,850,000 

11,124,418 
Growth s'nee 18G0, estimated 500,000 

11,624,418 

The current of population follows, nearly, lines of equal temperature, with a tendency to move from 
excesses of heat and cold toward the zone of 50 degrees Fahrenheit, mean annual temperature. This zone, 
according to Disturnell, has a mean width of less than two hundred miles. The north boundary-line of 
this zone passes through or near the following cities : Albany, Buffalo, Detroit, Racine, Sioux City, Fort 
Hall, Princess Royal Island, and through the middle of Queen Charlotte's Island of the Pacific. The south 
boundary-line, in North America, passes through or near the following places: Philadelphia; Columbus, 
Ohio; Springfield, Illinois; St. Joseph, Missouri : Santa Fee, Great Salt Lake, Dallas, Astoria. In Europe, 
its north line passes westward, a little north of the Sea of Asof, through the cities of Posen, Berlin, 
Hamburg, Newcastle, Glasgow, and Belfast. Its south line passes at the outlet of the Sea of Asof, near 
Buda, Munich, Orleans, and Cape Clear. 

I give below figures made up from the U. S. census of 1800, exhibiting the operation of the power of 
climate on city growth, within the belt embraced within the iso-therm of 48 and 52 degrees Fahrenheit. 
This zone, varying in width from 120 to 200 miles, embraces but a small portion of our country, but it 
concentrates within its limits a much greater city population than all the broad expanse on both sides of it. 

) Within the belt 4,312 700 

Population in I860, - 

) Out of the belt 1,901,729 

Within the favorite climate the cities have grown, since 1800, probably not less than 00 per cent. At 
this rate their present population amounts to 0,000,184. 

At the rate of growth, estimated at 30 per cent., the city population, exterior to the favorite belt, has 
increased to 2,250.247. 

Dr. Thkmisi.ey's record of the temperature of the city of Toledo, as averaged for seven years, gives 
a small fraction above 50 degrees Fahrenheit. This accords with Blodgett's climatological table, and is, 
doubtless, correct. 

The control of climate on the movement and settlement of civilized man, is a great fact worthy of 
consideration, and may be of great practical value to persons looking for permanent homes. To live 
where capital and people can work to greatest advantage is to live in the best place. 



28 

In Asia, the zone of great cities embraces but a few, of which Ptkin is the only line of great importance. 

The power of climate to control human movements and habitation, and concentrate in the region best 
adapted to the developement of the best energies of man, is manifested more and more as knowledge 
extends, and the means to remove to such best region, become more and more ample. The tide of human 
movement is westward. It has oulminated, or is culminating, in Europe, on its extreme western ver^e 
in the middle climate zone, in the great cities of England and France. New York, Philadelphia, Buffalo, 
Toledo, Detroit, Chicago, Davenport, St. Joseph and Omaha are on the route of the future movement. 

The following tables are inserted for their general value, and not because they aro considered germane 
to this general subject : 

NEW YORK IN 1834 AND 1867, 

Thirty-three years. One generation. In 1834, the total valuation of the real and personal property of 
this city was returned by the assessor at one hundred and eighty-six millions. In 1807, the total 
valuation of real and personal property was returned at eight hundred and thirty million dollars — 
$830,594,718. 



THE POPULATION OF EUROPEAN CITIES. 

In 18(16, censuses were taken in Great Britain and France, and the reports 
population of the principal cities ; 



show the following 



London 3,037,091 

Paris .. 1,825,274 

Liverpool 484,337 

Glasgow 462,265 

Manchester , 358,855 

Birmingham 335,798 

Lyons 326,954 

Dublin 818,437 

Marseilles 300.131 

Leods 228,187 

Sheffield 218,257 



Bordeaux.. .;... 104 

Edenburg 175 

Bristol 163 

Lille 154 

Toulouse 126 

Newcastle-on-Tyne. 122/.! 77 

Balford 1 12,904 

Nantes 111,056 

Hull 105.233 

H« men loo,070 



,241 
,126 
,630 

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